Can We Expect a Gold Rally Next Week Due to Soft CPI Data? Gold (XAU) Price Forecast.

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Disappointment Over Economic Data Pressures Gold

This week, gold prices have been under pressure due to disappointment in the mixed economic data. The market was hoping for a strong case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points at the upcoming September meeting. However, the data didn’t provide enough clarity for the Fed to take a more aggressive easing stance, leading to cautious trading and profit-taking in gold.

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Equity Sell-Off Adds to Liquidation of Gold

In addition to economic data concerns, a sharp sell-off in the equity markets, particularly in the tech sector, has contributed to the decline in gold prices. Investors facing losses in equities have been liquidating profitable gold positions to cover margin calls, putting further pressure on the precious metal as a target for selling amidst market turmoil.

Mixed Labor Market Data Fails to Fuel Aggressive Rate Cut Expectations

The mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for August showed signs of a softening labor market but wasn’t weak enough to prompt a larger rate cut by the Fed. Private payrolls also came in lower than expected, adding to the uncertainty. The outlook remains tilted towards a 25-basis-point rate cut, which hasn’t provided strong upward momentum for gold prices.

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CPI Inflation Data in Focus Next Week

Traders are now looking ahead to next week’s August CPI inflation report, which could impact gold prices. Expectations for easing headline inflation could support a more aggressive rate cut and, in turn, gold. However, if inflation remains steady, it could limit the Fed’s ability to make larger cuts, keeping pressure on gold prices.

Market Forecast: A Cautious Outlook for Gold

As we look forward, gold prices are expected to remain volatile, with the CPI data playing a crucial role in determining the metal’s direction. Traders should prepare for potential rebounds or continued selling pressure based on upcoming economic data and the Fed’s decisions.

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